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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a produ🍸ct of coincidence. 🌄Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is determined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence🐼 and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning: All teams in the Bundesliga have ab𓄧out the same conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. The🍰re is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, home stre𝐆ngth is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in a match. To be precise, the number of goals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,ജ8.
Rather not. 46 % of all wins ꧑are based upon a one-goal-margin.
No. Only about 25% of 🉐matches result ins draw. By implication 75% of m♛atches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 🍎70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted t🍬o 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two𒉰 match days about 20% more goals are scored than on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past matches is especi✨ally informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative💖 than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities a💦re a lot more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversion.
The markeꦯt value of a team as determined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A se☂ason-specific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a team scores againꦏst an average opponent)
The coincidence💝 averages out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable go♋als and opportunities display the performances of teams.
A fo♎otball match is dominated by effects of coincidence. Additionally the performance𝓰 level of offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the differenc💎e of goalscoring opportunities would perfectly predict the performance level.
The goal differ😼ence is determined by effects of coincidence with 86% (match daꦇy) or 29% (season) on average.
Flu𒁃ctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place𒁃 during the summer break and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negatiඣve series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the con🌊version of effective goalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted ﷽teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from t♚he lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the ꦫeffective differente of goalscorin🐲g opportunities you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the season..
No. In facꦍt only in half of the cases the best team wins and becomes German champion at the end of the season.
No. Statist🍷ically,🐲 there are no bogey team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
Of 𓃲course we know! But it is enough for today, we will let you know another rime.